Budget thinking - date confirmed for 28th October
New government, new thinking?
Andy Burnham has hit the ground in a blaze of publicity. The Budget - confirmed for the 28th October - however is his first real commitment. So, what will that look like?
What we know so far...
- He has said he will stick to the Labour Party Manifesto, which promises a 'stable tax environment' and a fairer business rates system (which he hasn't mentioned as yet)
- Spending increases are implied however, simply given what he needs to spend to realise things like the national social care service
The big questions:
- Where will the extra budget come from?
- What will he do to support small businesses?
- What do you want to see from the budget?
Here's a summary of rumours, feelings and comments:
- Policy direction remains unclear, with plenty of rumours but few firm announcements.
- Personal allowance: Andy Burnham initially suggested the freeze could be reviewed, but this was quickly softened to a possible future Budget consideration.
- Cost concerns make reversing the personal allowance freeze increasingly unlikely.
- Property tax rumours: Proposals to replace Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) and council tax with a value-based property tax have emerged, but are not confirmed policy. Whatever happens, the rumours have created uncertainty, so buyers will hold back until after the budget.
- Speculation creates uncertainty, whether driven by the press or deliberate government “kite-flying”.
- Economic impact: There is still a clear lack of confidence in our economy across the board.

1
Join the conversation
FT
Finance and Tax
9 members 3 posts
Channels
Want an Impressive
Registered Office Address?
Register your London business address and let our AI agent HaiRo™ organise, digitise, and deliver your post.


We started Hoxton Mix because starting a business in this country is harder than it needs to be — and almost none of that difficulty is the business.
It's the registered office. The forms. The letter from HMRC that arrives in language nobody outside HMRC uses. The compliance you didn't know applied to you until you'd already got it wrong. None of that makes a product better or wins a customer. It just sits between a person with an idea and the thing they're actually good at.
So we built the guardrails. Take the admin off the founder, absorb the friction, let them get on with running the business. That was the whole point.
Which is why the last two years have been hard to watch. Every guardrail we put up, government has added two more obstacles behind it.
Let's do the numbers, because they're rarely put in one place.
April 2025: employer National Insurance went from 13.8% to 15%, and the threshold at which you start paying it dropped from £9,100 to £5,000. That second change is the one that hurt. It isn't a tax on profit. It's a tax on the act of employing someone. The OBR scored it at £23.8bn in 2025-26 rising to £25.7bn by 2029-30, and assumed roughly 60% of it comes straight back out of wages.
November 2025: that £5,000 threshold was frozen until April 2031. Six years of nominal freeze — a stealth rise every single year, and almost nobody talks about it.
April 2026: dividend tax up two points, landing squarely on every owner-manager taking a low salary and dividends. Which is most of the small business economy. Same month, the National Living Wage hits £12.71 — up 11% in two years, and up 26% for 18-20 year olds.
January 2027: unfair dismissal protection kicks in at six months instead of two years, and the cap on compensatory awards is removed entirely. From 1 October this year, the window to bring a tribunal claim doubles to six months.
The government's own analysis concedes these costs "will be proportionately higher for small and micro businesses." The Regulatory Policy Committee rated its impact assessment red — not fit for purpose. The OBR left the Employment Rights Act out of its March forecast altogether, because nobody yet knows what it does.
Here's the part that should worry everyone. Firms aren't going under — insolvencies are actually down 10% year on year. They're doing something quieter and worse: they've stopped hiring. Payrolled employees are down 71,000 on the year. Hospitality is down 79,000. Retail employment hit a record low in March. Youth unemployment is 16.4%, with over a million young people not in education, employment or training — the first time above a million since 2013. In the first quarter of this year, more businesses closed than opened.
Meanwhile public sector headcount is up 37,000, with central government at a record high.
And who's making these calls? There is not one founder, one CEO, one owner-manager in the Cabinet. The Business Secretary's private sector career is a solicitor's traineeship he never finished. The ministers who have actually built something sit a rung below Cabinet, where they don't set the direction.
What I want to see on 28 October:
None of that is radical. It's just removing friction from people who are trying to build something — which is the same job we've been doing for years, one company at a time.
Burnham said before he had the job that the NI rise "wasn't the right decision." Good. He has until 28 October to prove he meant it.
You're the people this actually lands on. What would you add to the list?